Specialty coffee in Michelin-starred gastronomy: Star chef Tanja Grandits brews our espresso
Coffee is subject to climate change. Our new video explores who will grow coffee where and how in the future, what it will taste like, and whether it will become more expensive.
Last summer I read a book that has shaped my thinking and actions ever since. It's called "The Good Ancestor" by Roman Krznaric.
In it, Krznaric discusses concepts that can help us think for future generations and thus critically examine our actions.
We know that our decisions have long-term consequences: in our personal lives, professionally, and yes, also when drinking coffee.
Because the coffee tree planted today will face increasingly adverse conditions in the future. Perhaps it will become drier, or wetter, or cooler, hotter, or there will be new mutations of diseases that will affect the coffee tree.
The effects of climate change are influencing coffee production, but exactly how and where is still not foreseeable. So it's actually not self-evident whether we can still drink coffee in 2050. In short: we will still drink coffee in 27 years, but not in the way we do today.
In the podcast series Coffea Futurica, I speak with guests about future scenarios for how we can better grow, process, roast, trade, and prepare coffee.
The Coffee of the Future
Perhaps the coffee will taste similar, but what happens on the way to our coffee cup will have changed dramatically.
We all play a part in determining the future of coffee.
◉ Through the intention of how we buy coffee
◉ Through the preference for what we like in coffee
◉ Through the idea of what type of agriculture we want to support
I recently laid out these thoughts in a video and discuss the following points.
The following questions are discussed in detail in the video, here is a brief summary.
Where does the coffee of the future come from?
Brazil, the world's largest coffee-producing country, will be hit hard by global warming. Certain regions are warming significantly and drought stress is increasing.
In other regions, a changing climate suddenly opens up new opportunities: in Uruguay or Portugal, the climate will be suitable for coffee cultivation in a few years. The demographic upheavals associated with this are all still incalculable—however, they will be distinctly noticeable.
Who will grow it?
Small farms that today already lack direct market access, are in debt, and know little about the potential of their coffee will disappear from the scene. The financial and psychological burden is too great to plant a product with a long horizon in an increasingly unpredictable environment, especially when it only yields returns after three years.
The future belongs to producers who are well-networked and flexible, who can adapt their knowledge and soil potential to circumstances, and who are as entrepreneurial as they are sensory-skilled.
What will coffee taste like in the future?
The same and different. The mass market will likely taste similar, because coffee from warmer regions often shows less complexity. And as it gets warmer, there will be more regions producing coffee with a mass-market taste. More specialized coffees will continue to exist, but demand is also rising rapidly here, making the market more competitive.
Will coffee be more expensive in the future?
Yes, it will likely gradually become more expensive. This has to do with rising cost of living, hopefully ever-better wages for coffee producers, and competition for labor. Some places will mechanize more than others, but industrialization of coffee production is not equally possible everywhere.
So I would argue: if coffee doesn't get more expensive, we need to look at that critically.
Prices have risen everywhere in the past year, so why shouldn't a product that travels once around the world also become more expensive?
There will especially be one segment of the coffee market that will grow strongly: the one that has recognized that nature is not free. In this segment, coffees will have the price needed to shape agriculture in a way that makes sense for people and the environment.
What is our role in this? And what can we do?
All of us who drink coffee, we who roast, buy, and produce? We can all help shape the coffee of the future.
Two simple ways are:
1. Those who buy directly from roasteries have the opportunity to ask where the coffee comes from exactly, how the coffee was produced, and whether this coffee is ethically and environmentally responsible.
2. Those who buy coffee in the supermarket can opt for double-certified coffees (organic and Fairtrade). Maybe this will only make the coffee world somewhat better, but above all, it won't make it worse. And that's a good start.
As a company with the purpose of viewing coffee as a whole, providing inspiration, and using coffee to make the world a little better, the current and future challenges are a drive for us like never before to help shape the future.
Where there are questions and uncertainties, there are opportunities. We stay on it, look for answers, and want to use these opportunities with all those involved in the coffee chain.
More on the topic "Coffee of the Future": Podcast Coffea Futurica
Our coffees from projects focused on regenerative agriculture:
Toca - Espresso, Mexico
here we support a newly created cooperative transitioning from conventional to organic and regenerative production
Mamy - Espresso, Guinea
the Macenta Beans project works with Canephora producers who inherently use no synthetic fertilizers and grow coffee in the rainforest
Flhor - Espresso, long coffee, Honduras
18 Conejo are our long-standing partners focusing on biodynamic coffees. As the first certified organic producer, 18 Conejo remains a pioneer in nature-based cultivation to this day
Apas - Espresso, Brazil
In January 2023, the first container of organic-certified Apas coffee shipped. A milestone in our partnership, because organic coffee in Brazil is a rarity.
