Coffee is subject to climate change. Our new video explores who will grow coffee where and how in the future, what it will taste like, and whether it will become more expensive.
Last summer I read a book that has shaped my thinking and actions ever since. It's called "The Good Ancestor" by Roman Krznaric.
In it, Krznaric discusses concepts that can help us think for future generations and thus critically examine our actions.
We know that our decisions have long-term consequences: in our private lives, in our work, and yes, also when drinking coffee.
Because the coffee tree planted today will face increasingly difficult conditions in the future. Perhaps it will become drier, or wetter, or cooler, hotter, or there will be new mutations of diseases that will affect the coffee tree.
The effects of climate change influence coffee production, but exactly how and where is still unpredictable. So it's actually not a given whether we can still drink coffee in 2050. In short: we will still drink coffee in 27 years, but not in the same way as today.
In the podcast series Coffea Futurica, I speak with guests about future scenarios for how we can grow, process, roast, trade, and prepare coffee better.
The coffee of the future
Perhaps the coffee will still taste similar, but what happens on the way to our coffee cup will have changed dramatically.
We all shape the future of coffee together.
◉ Through the intention of how we buy coffee
◉ Through our preferences for what we like in coffee
◉ Through the idea of what kind of agriculture we want to support
I recently laid out these thoughts in a video and discuss the following points.
The following questions are discussed in detail in the video; here is a brief summary.
Where does the coffee of the future come from?
Brazil, the world's largest coffee-producing country, will be hit hard by climate warming. Certain regions are warming significantly and drought stress is increasing.
In other regions, a changing climate suddenly opens up new opportunities: in Uruguay or Portugal, the climate will be suitable for coffee cultivation in a few years. The demographic upheavals that come with this are all still incalculable—but they will be distinctly felt.
Who will grow it?
Small farms that today already lack direct market access, are in debt, and know little about the potential of their coffee will disappear from the scene. The financial and psychological burden is too great to plant a product with a long horizon and only yielding after three years in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
The future belongs to producers who are well-networked and flexible, who can adapt the potential of their knowledge and soil to the circumstances, and who are as entrepreneurial as they are sensory-skilled.
What will coffee taste like in the future?
Same and different. The large mass will probably taste similar because coffee from warmer regions often shows less complexity. And as it gets warmer, there will be more regions producing coffee with a mass-market taste. More specialized coffees will continue to exist, but demand is also rising rapidly here, which will make the market more competitive.
Will coffee become more expensive in the future?
Yes, it will probably gradually become more expensive. This is related to rising cost of living, hopefully ever-improving wages for coffee producers, and competition for labor. In some places there will be more mechanization than in others, but the industrialization of coffee production is not equally possible everywhere.
So I would argue: if coffee doesn't become more expensive, we should view that critically.
Prices have risen everywhere in the last year, so why shouldn't a product that travels around the world become more expensive?
There will above all be a segment in the coffee market that will grow strongly: the one that has recognized that nature is not free. In this segment, coffees will have the price needed to shape agriculture in a way that benefits people and the environment.
What is our role in this? And what can we do?
We all who drink coffee, we who roast, buy, and produce? We all can shape the coffee of the future.
Two simple means are:
1. Those who buy directly from roasteries have the opportunity to ask where the coffee comes from exactly, how it was produced, and whether this coffee is produced in a humane and environmentally friendly way.
2. Those who buy coffee at the supermarket can rely on double-certified coffees (organic and Fairtrade). Perhaps this will only make the coffee world somewhat better, but above all it will prevent it from getting worse. And that's a good start.
As a company with the purpose of viewing coffee as a whole, providing impulses, and making the world a little better with coffee, the current and future challenges are a drive for us like never before to shape the future with others.
Where there are questions and uncertainties, there are opportunities. We stay on it, seek answers, and want to use these opportunities with all those involved in the coffee chain.
More on the topic "Coffee of the Future": Podcast Coffea Futurica
Our coffees from projects focused on regenerative agriculture:
Toca - Espresso, Mexico
Here we support a newly created cooperative in its transition from conventional to organic and regenerative production
Mamy - Espresso, Guinea
The project by Macenta Beans works with Canephora producers who by nature don't use synthetic fertilizers and grow coffee in the rainforest
Flhor - Espresso, long coffee, Honduras
18 Conejo are our long-term partners with a focus on biodynamic coffees. As the first certified organic producer, 18 Conejo remains a pioneer in natural cultivation to this day
Apas - Espresso, Brazil
In January 2023, the first container of organically certified Apas coffee was shipped. A milestone in our partnership, because organic coffee in Brazil is a rarity.
